The nitrogen fertilizer market remains attractive

Last week, gas trading continued for delivery in November and December 2024. 11 companies participated in the trading on the Ukrainian Energy Exchange, acting as sellers or buyers of gas: Electro-gaz, Energygaztrade, National Resources of Ukraine, Ukrnaftoburinnia, Nadra-geoinvest, GTS Operator of Ukraine, GPK Naftogaz Trading, Ukrnafta, Poltavagaz, IGK, Dneprostal-energo. Starting gas prices increased during the week. According to the Exchange, as a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of the December resource was 2.05% higher than Monday's figure.

Last week, 104,100 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. Natural gas was purchased by the GTS operator of Ukraine, GPK Naftogaz Trading, and sold by the companies VK Ukrnaftoburinnia, Nadra-geoinvest, and Ukrnafta.

The auction closed on Friday with prices for November-December at about UAH 14,800/t excluding VAT. According to Infoindustry, on Tuesday gas rose in price to UAH 15,400/thousand cubic meters excluding VAT.

For Ukrainian fertilizer producers, this means that the cost of ammonia for export (for example, production of OPP) may be UAH 19,200-19,400/t excluding VAT or USD 467-477/t, FOB. This price does not allow Ukrainian ammonia to compete in the markets of North Africa with products from the Middle East, but fits well into the market price level in Northwestern Europe. Ammonia in the PZE last week fell in price to 620-640 USD/t, DDU. However, Ukrainian producers cannot hope for ammonia exports, because on the domestic market the price of ammonia reached 31-32 thousand UAH/t with VAT and delivery.

According to the Infoindustry Agency, the deficit of anhydrous ammonia in the fall of 2024 could reach 15-20 thousand tons. Most agricultural holdings tried to buy ammonia, giving it preference over ammonium nitrate. At the same time, the prices for nitrogen fertilizers were marked by a significant difference in the active substance in different types of nitrogen fertilizers (urea, ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate, ammonia water).

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